Saturday, October 23, 2010

Block deal in Oswal Chem; stk gains 8.2%

Oswal Chemicals and Fertilisers touched an intraday high of Rs 20.60 and an intraday low of Rs 18.90. At 09:54 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 20.35, up Rs 1.55, or 8.24% on the NSE.


There was a block deal of 3.5 crore (13.6% Eq) Oswal Chem shares at Rs 19.50 per share,


The block deals is executed in FII window.
It was trading with volumes of 720,520 shares. Yesterday the share closed up 0.53% or Rs 0.10 at Rs 18.80.


Share Price Movement During The Last 12 Months

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Friday, October 22, 2010

Biocon Q2 cons net profit up 20.54% at Rs 89.2 cr

An integrated healthcare company Biocon has announced its results for the quarter ended September 2010. It has reported consolidated net profit of Rs 89.2 crore as against Rs 74 crore, a growth of 20.54% on year-on-year basis (YoY).


Consolidated net sales jumped 17.07% to Rs 679 crore from Rs 580 crore (YoY).



Bottomline numbers were better-than-expectations while topline was in-line;


Biocon's operating margins improved to 22% versus 19.5%.

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Raymond advances 6%

Raymond touched an intraday high of Rs 405.50 and an intraday low of Rs 381.40. At 09:50 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 401.75, up Rs 23.25, or 6.14%.
It was trading with volumes of 917,208 shares. Yesterday the share closed up 1.49% or Rs 5.55 at Rs 378.50.


Share Price Movement During The Last 12 Months

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Block deal in HDIL; stock down

Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL) touched an intraday high of Rs 276.80 and an intraday low of Rs 268.25. At 09:38 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 270.50, down Rs 4.15, or 1.51%.


There was a block deal of 1.1 crore HDIL shares on BSE at Rs 272.90 per share, reports CNBC-TV18.
It was trading with volumes of 12,870,039 shares. Yesterday the share closed up 2.16% or Rs 5.80 at Rs 274.65.


Share Price Movement During The Last 12 Months

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Don\'t expect to see fullfledged currency war: C Rangarajan

Dr C Rangarajan, chairman of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council and former governor of RBI, to discuss the issue.


 Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview. Also watch the video.


Q: With regards to the external environment, what several people are calling the potential of a currency war breaking down or breaking out?a race to the bottom?how de-stabilising do you anticipate this could be to the global growth situation and what implications could it have for India?


A: If that is all-out currency war, it will be very damaging to the world economy. The growth process, which is still very slow in the developed economies, will be severely affected and it will also affect the developing economies. But one only hopes that it will not blow into or emerge into a full scale currency war.


Q: This is going to be the focus of talks in the upcoming G20 meet. The US-China debate aside several emerging nations have either imposed some form of capital control or are considering some form of capital control. You had what is going on in Brazil and Thailand?analysts are expecting Taiwan, Korea and maybe even Indonesia to start looking at some for of capital controls. How do you assess the chances of a currency war breaking out? Of course it breaks out like you pointed out, it would be disastrous, but what are the chances currently in your assessment of such a thing happening?


A: I think some compromise will be worked out the G20 meetings. Neither United States not China would be interested in pushing this to the brink. I don?t particularly think that the possibility of a full-fledged currency war bursting on the world economy. As far as capital controls are concerned, that is based on a different set of consideration the emerging markets feel that possibly because of the liquidity available in the world system. There will be more influx of funds into the countries and they are keen and anxious to limit these inflows or to ensure that the impact of these inflows is not too much on the economy.


Q: Coming to India view and starting first with the rupee as well as the intervention issue before going into the capital control?s point of view. We have seen about 5% appreciation on the rupee this year. It?s at mid-44 levels. We have seen one bought of interventions by the RBI last week. What rupee level are you building into your assessment? Where do you think the exchange rate is likely to go and settle, over the short-term at least, considering that the flood of liquidity coming in from some of the developed nations is unlikely to be stemmed in any fashion?


A: As far as the appreciation of the rupee is concerned, it is very much in relation to the dollar. In relation to the other currencies, it has been a zigzag. It is not in any one direction. On the whole, the trade deficit has a tendency to widen and therefore in this particular context we need to ensure that the rupee in terms of the dollar does not appreciate in nominal terms. Perhaps we should say more or less at the same level that we had at the beginning of the fiscal year. Therefore the first step is to ensure that the rupee does not appreciate in nominal terms.


In real effective terms of course the rupee has appreciated. That is precisely because of the high level of inflation in this country. Only when inflation in India comes down very substantially, the real effective appreciation can be stopped. But in nominal terms, I would suggest that the RBI should take such action as will be necessary to ensure that it doesn?t appreciate.


Q: What is that such action? Is it more direct intervention that you are referring to?


A: Yes, if the capital inflows are very large, then the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should be willing to intervene in the market and accumulate the reserves. But let us also understand that until the end of August the capital inflow into India was not that strong. The addition to the foreign exchange reserves at end of August was very minimal. The surge is seen only in September and in October.


But also let us look at the capital inflows in the context of widening current account deficit perhaps the current account deficit of India in this year will be close to 3% of the GDP. This will be equivalent to something like USD 45 billion and therefore we need capital inflows to finance the current account deficit of that particular order and some addition to the foreign exchange reserves over and above covering the current account deficit will also be needed.


There is still some scope for the Reserve Bank of India to absorb the capital flows into the reserves.

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Bhushan Steel has target of Rs 590: Gujral

Bhushan Steel has target of Rs 590,


Bhushan Steel is the strongest steel stock, which is almost at new highs, so we buy this a stoploss of about Rs 504. While other metal stocks got hammered last 2-3 days this one is sideways and started moving up yesterday. The target in the short term could be closer to Rs 590."


The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 40.65 per share. (Jun, 2010). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 13.36. The latest book value of the company is Rs 186.24 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 2.92. The dividend yield of the company was 0.09%.


 


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Sasken Comm declares Q2 numbers; stk plunges 6.5%

Sasken Communication Technologies touched an intraday high of Rs 235.50 and an intraday low of Rs 214.05. At 09:44 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 214.05, down Rs 14.8, or 6.47%.


The company has declared its consolidated second quarter result. Its Q2 net profit was down at Rs 15.7 crore versus Rs 23 crore, QoQ. Its net sales were down at Rs 133.8 crore versus Rs 145.8 crore, QoQ,.
It was trading with volumes of 172,984 shares. Yesterday the share closed up 0.02% or Rs 0.05 at Rs 228.85.


Share Price Movement During The Last 12 Months

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United Phosp has target of Rs 225: Gujral

United Phosphorous has target of Rs 225, says Technical Analyst, .


United Phosphorous has been in a sideways type of range; Rs 175 to about Rs 200. Yesterday it started breaking out there on good volume. Agri fertilizer type of plays are doing well, so we can buy this with a stoploss of about Rs 195. The short term target here could be Rs 225."


The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 3.10 per share. (Jun, 2010). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 67.37. The latest book value of the company is Rs 43.58 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 4.79. The dividend yield of the company was 0.96%


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UCO Bank can test Rs 145: Gujral

UCO Bank can test Rs 145,


UCO Bank corrected from Rs 130 to about Rs 115. Yesterdays starts moving back up, so that is a good entry point, Rs 118 is a stop here. Once we can take out Rs 130 it is likely to get up to Rs 145."


The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 19.91 per share. (Jun, 2010). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 6.33. The latest book value of the company is Rs 65.74 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 1.92. The dividend yield of the company was 1.19%.

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Axis Bank sells shares of Elder Pharma

On October 21, 2010 Axis Bank Ltd sold 167,463 shares of Elder Pharma at Rs 435 on the NSE.


Credo India Thematic Fund sold 226,500 shares at Rs 435 on the BSE. Darshan Finvest Pvt Ltd bought 320,000 shares at Rs 433.66 on the BSE. M.prasad & Co Ltd bought 170,000 shares at Rs 434.85 on the NSE.


At 09:31 hrs the share was quoting at Rs 395.80, up Rs 0.90, or 0.23%.

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IT budget to be higher next fiscal: TCS

Boosted by strong September quarter results, Tata Consultancy Service (TCS) is on cloud nine. The company has seen double digit growth across verticals.


The management of TCS gave their perspective on the company?s September quarter results and the challenges ahead.


The management include N Chandrasekaran (CEO and MD), S Mahalingam (CFO and ED), Ajoy Mukherjee (Head-Global Human Resources) and Phiroz Vandreval (ED and Head-Global Corporate Affairs).


On a high note, the management informed that IT budgets will be higher next fiscal as the volume growth achieved in the last quarter is not an one off and quite sustainable. Hoping to have higher pricing in FY12, the management said that Europe still continues to lag behind.


What really stood out for the company was the volume growth which was up about 11.2%. TCS has seen double digit growth across verticals. Verticals like manufacturing, telecom and hi-Tech which have been under pressure since the last couple of quarters have shown double digit growth which clearly reflects a very good sign for the company going forward. Utilisation is at an all time high. Going forward, TCS expects clients to gradually increase their IT budgets. There is also a possibility that pricing could see a little bit of increase going forward.


However, one concern that stands out is attrition. Attrition is up about 1% QoQ and 14% overall. It is expected to remain in the next couple of quarters.


Attrition at 14% is worrying the management. It has hired 30,000 employees in the first half of FY11. With a gross target of 50,000, the company aims to hire another 20,000 employees in the second half of the current fiscal. On an optimistic note the company added that attrition level has been coming down from July 2010 levels.


The company's Q2 US GAAP consolidated net profit was up 14%(QoQ) at Rs 2,106 crore. Its consolidated net sales were up 13% (QOQ) at Rs 9,285.3 crore. Its operating profit margin was up 86 bps at 28% (QoQ). Forex loss during the quarter was at Rs 41.7 crore.


Q: You have seen double digit volume growth at 11%. Are the good old days back?


Chandrasekaran: We have seen a strong recovery in demand and we have been able enough to capture that demand and deliver. It?s been a good run this quarter.


Q: But it?s not a one-off, right?


Chandrasekaran: It?s not a one-off because there is a double digit growth in all verticals. We operate in ten different industry segments. All the segments are showing a double digit growth which is fantastic. I do not think that is a one-off and a pent-up demand.


There are two things that are driving this growth. First, everyone wants to become efficient whether it is in the financial service industry or in manufacturing or in telecom. There is an efficiency drive across the board.


Secondly, everyone wants to invest in growth. In the financial services industry, you see how they can use technologies like mobility and customer insights, single customer view and customer data. So it is more customers oriented. When we go to some of the other sectors, new product introduction in manufacturing another sector is how we can become global. We all are in different teams, but everyone wants efficiency and growth.


Q: Do you think this kind of approach will spill over to the IT budgets next year?


Chandrasekaran: The budget cycle is on and we will know more by end of December. I spoke to some of our key customers recently but the indication is that it?s going to be an increased budget next year compared to this fiscal.


Q: We were speaking to one of your peers a couple of days back and they highlighted that the macro headwinds are making visibility clouded. You are saying that the momentum is so strong that it should spill over to budgets next year?


A: The preliminary indications of the budgets are that it?s going to increase next year. I definitely agree that the macro environment is very uncertain. That?s something that we have to keep watching and its unfortunate I have to keep saying that quarter after quarter, for a foreseeable time because it?s not going to be a recovery overnight.


Q: You are preparing for it, it seems. You have a record hiring in the current quarter?


Mukherjee: This is the highest ever that we have done, more than 19,000. As far as the whole fiscal is concerned we have set about 50,000 gross. We will be starting at campuses very soon which is for next year. There again we will be doing pretty high numbers as compared to what we did last year. We are preparing well for further growth.


Q: Next two quarters, how many people do you think you will hire?


Mukherjee: At this stage we have already done 30,000 so about 20,000 are what we are looking at for the next two quarters.


Q: What will utilisation levels be at with such strong hiring this quarter. This quarter was 83.8%, right?


Mukherjee: It is at 83.8% which is excluding trainees. Including trainees we are at 77.7%. There is room for improvement, its not that we cannot improve it further but it all depends on the kind of demand that we have and fulfillment of that demand. We will definitely be constantly watching the utilisation numbers.


Q: What is the big deal landscape looking like? What you said about various sectors is true, but are you also seeing much more traction on big deals?


Chandrasekaran: The demand environment is really good. The deal pipeline is strong across industries and across markets. The closures are happening and the ramp ups are happening. The big biggest difference in the last three months compared to the earlier quarters is that not only are closures and ramp ups happening well in time, it is helping accelerate things.


Q: But Europe still has to play a bit of catch-up with the US?


Chandrasekaran: Yes absolutely, Europe lags behind and it will continue to lag behind.


Q: What did Europe?s volumes grow at?


Chandrasekaran: Europe we did very well this quarter. Upwards of 15% in rupee terms and in dollar terms it?s even more. While the growth will be there it?s on a smaller base but it?s also true that the discretionary spend in Europe lags behind the US.


Q: Sectors like telecom have done well, 12% higher?


Chandrasekaran: Telecom has done 12%, banking has done 10% and utilities have done 45%. It?s been a very good growth.


Q: On the supply side, is attrition still a problem and can you curb it?


Chandrasekaran: I don?t like 14%, it?s high. While we can say that it?s one of the lowest in the industry, I think 14% on our basis is a very large number. We have added 19,293 people for a net addition of 14,000. It?s still 5,000-6,000 people going in a quarter resulting about 24,000 people if you analyze it, which is a very large number. We are taking a lot of steps and I am confident that we will bring it down.


Q: Any targets there to bring down attrition? What is the comfort level for you?


Mukherjee: Comfort number would of course be a number which is smaller which is what we used to have earlier. At the same time, given the demand growth in the market, we just cannot wish attrition away. We have to manage that.


We are taking necessary steps to bring it down and we would definitely like to see it come down. July is the time when it has peaked because of the cyclical reasons and everything else and it?s coming down from that point onwards.


Q: Do you think you will need to tweak salaries again from what you have done already this year?


Mukherjee: From a salaries point, my employee wage cost itself is a billion per quarter. That is a phenomenal number. We have the variable scheme which depends on how well the organization has done and based on that employees also get rewarded. This quarter we have given a 150% of our quarterly variable and we will stick to that mechanism for compensation.


Q: So no mid-year kind of increments to tame down attrition level?


Mukherjee: No, that is not what are plans are and we will be sticking to our quarterly variable mechanism to reward our employees.

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Thursday, October 21, 2010

Jet Airways, Alitalia in code sharing pact

Jet Airways has inked a code sharing pact with Italian carrier Alitalia to operate codeshare flights during the winter season.


Jet Airways customers globally will be able to fly to new Italian destinations, served by Alitalia. Alitalia customers will be able to fly directly from Italy to India with new destinations, Jet said in a statement late on Wednesday.



Jet Airways will operate daily direct services between Milan and New Delhi starting December 5.

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Expect to end FY12 with 40,000 MW capacity: NTPC

State-owned power generating company NTPC?s execution roadmap is on track, says the recently appointed chairman and managing director Arup Roy Choudhury, in an exclusive interview


He says a wave of external factors affected their delivery in the past but is expecting to meet their annual targets this time around. At present, their execution capacity is at 32,000 megawatt. He says, they will end FY11 with an additional 4,000 megawatt and end FY12 with another 5,000 megawatt taking their total capacity to 40,000 megawatt. ?We are going to achieve 75,000 megawatt in the next five years,? he added.


Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying videos.


Q: Could you take us through the execution roadmap for NTPC over the next two-three years as you see it? Over the last three years, one observation has been that NTPC has not achieved plant capacity addition?


A: This year we had a target to achieve an additional 4,000 megawatt and we are on line to achieve that. From next year onwards it is going to be 5,500-6,000 megawatt increase in that order. Today our total capacity is generating about 30,000-32,000 megawatt and 18,000 megawatt is already under construction. So it is about 50,000.


We are targeted to do about 75,000 megawatt by the end of 12th plan for which you will be happy to know that another 8,000-9,000 megawatt is under the tendering process. Another 13,000 megawatt of the feasibility report (FR) has been approved which will take us to about 70,000 megawatt. We are in a position to get another FR approval of another 10,000-15,000 megawatt by end of this year. If we achieve all this, I don?t see any reason why NTPC should miss any of its targets.


Q: Those numbers look good. The only thing is that the recent track record does not inspire too much confidence because NTPC spoke about 2,800 megawatt in FY09, but achieved 1,000 megawatt. In FY10, it spoke about 3,300 megawatt, again achieved roughly 1,000 megawatt. Why this underachievement over the last couple of years which would make your investors slightly skeptical of this 4,000 megawatt target that you are talking about for this year?


A: To the investors, I would request them to wait for October 26 when our quarterly results are going to be announced. The 4,000 megawatt that we have targeted, most of the projects are online and some of the issues where there were probably certain failures, totally they are not attributed to NTPC because we are working in a total environment where there are many players who affect our delivery.


I can assure the investors we have discussed it in-house, had a detailed discussion with the directors, the regional executive directors and the general managers of the projects and we feel that we can now do a little differently than what we were doing before. We have put all our vendors and sub-vendors on a caution note.


Q: Just to reiterate those numbers, by the end of fiscal year 2011 and by the end of fiscal year 2012, what kind of executed capacity can you achieve?


A: Today we are at 32,000 megawatt, we will achieve another 4,000 megawatt this year and another 5,000 megawatt next year. By end of 11th plan we should be about 40,000 megawatt.


Q: By the end of fiscal year 2012, you will have achieved 9,000 megawatt more incremental capacity?


A: We would have achieved about 8,000-9,000 megawatt more. We will come to 40,000 megawatt total.


Q: From the current level of 33,000 megawatt?


A: As on date it is about 32,000 megawatt so we will come to 40,000 megawatt total and then we are going to 75,000 megawatt in the next five years.


Q: You have also price bid for Rs 25,000 crore of orders which opened up on October 8. By when will those contracts be awarded out for the large BTG equipment?


A: By January end.


Q: By the end of January for all of them?


A: Yes, for BTG by January end and the boilers also by this fiscal.


Q: Have you made, disclosed or arrived at L1 status for any of these large tenders already because there has been a lot of talk in the market, of specific players, who have got L1 status in many of the contracts they have bid for?


A: The tender was very uniquely cast, in the sense that everybody gets a part of the pie. We are evaluating all the tenders. We will get a good response from three parties for getting the larger chunk and the others will also get a share.


Q: Those three parties would include L&T? There was some confusion a few months back about L&T for one of the contracts which they subsequently rebid for?


A: No, L&T is not in the turbine package but definitely in the boiler package.

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Supertech targets Rs 2500cr IPO in a year

Realtor Supertech Ltd plans to raise about Rs 2000-2500 crore through an initial share sale in a year, a top executive said on Wednesday.


"We are in the process of appointing bankers. At present, we have appointed Knight Frank as consultant to do the valuation," chairman and managing director R. K. Arora told reporters.


Supertech, which clocked in a revenue of about Rs 1000 crore in 2009/10 and has projects worth about Rs 10,000 crore, expects to dilute about 20% stake in the IPO, he added.


Noida-based Supertech has delivered about 33 million sqft of real estate projects so far and is currently constructing 70 million sqft mainly in towns near New Delhi, Arora said.


Supertech expects to conclude two private equity deals in one-and-a-half month, Arora said. "We are in talks with two PE players to raise a total of Rs 500 crore in two projects," Arora said. Knight Frank is advisor for both PE deals.


About a dozen realty firms, including Emaar MGF, the Indian JV of Dubai's Emaar Properties and Lodha Developers, have been waiting to launch IPOs in India to finance land acquisition and reduce debt, but fear of poor investor response had kept them at bay.


Oberoi Realty though had a successful listing on Wednesday with its Rs 1000 crore IPO getting subscribed over 12 times and shares listed at about 9% premium to its issue price.


A steep rise in prices too has slowed home sales in the country, mainly in Mumbai, increasing pressure on developers. In Noida, which has Supertech's main projects, an oversupply of housing projects has largely kept prices in check.


Arora said prices have marginally increased in the past two months in Noida and sales have not been impacted because of that.

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BofAML cuts Bajaj Auto to underperform

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch downgraded India's Bajaj Auto to underperform from neutral on Thursday, saying the earnings upgrade cycle has ended.


In a note seen by Reuters, the US investment bank said it expected sales and profit trajectory for India's second-largest motorcycle maker would decelerate sharply over fiscal years 2012 and 2013 on renewed competitive pressure.


At 9:47 am, shares in Bajaj Auto were trading 1.5% higher at Rs 1,507, while the main stock index was up 0.6%.

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Biocon\'s Pfizer deal: A booster for stock or priced in?

India's leading biotech firm, Biocon Ltd, has clinched a deal that would let Pfizer Inc sell its insulin drugs, pushing the Indian drugmaker's shares to a record high.


Biocon shares surged more than 15% following the announcement of the deal on Monday. The stock has soared 60% this year, rising more than 43% since August alone and making investors wary of a further rise.


While there is no split on the view that Biocon will benefit hugely from the tie-up with the world's biggest pharmaceutical company, many are worried the stock may have run too far ahead.


SMALL DEAL, BIG STEP


"This small deal for Pfizer is a big step for Biocon," said Rakesh Rawal, head of private wealth management at Anand Rathi, adding that he would buy the stock on dips.


"When you strike an alliance with such a big name, it opens up many such possibilities and opportunities for the future," said Rawal, who manages USD 1 billion for wealthy individuals.


The deal would give Biocon the marketing muscle and the funds needed to meet regulatory requirements and take its drugs beyond the 27 developing markets in which it now present.


"It is a good thing that they can market through Pfizer now," said K.K. Mital, head of portfolio management services at Globe Capital, who does not hold the stock. "But it is definitely on the radar. We may invest...we are waiting to see its quarterly performance" on Friday.


"The visibility for Biocon is increasing. Its financial performance is also improving," Mital said.


ALL PRICED IN?


Analysts do not see significant revenue from the Pfizer deal coming in before 2012/13, when the companies expect regulatory approval for Biocon's genetically engineered insulin in Europe.


"At these levels, the stock has priced in the deal. I am not looking at a big upside in stock price," said IIFL Capital's analyst Bino Pathiparampil. He has an "add" rating on the stock.


Biocon, founded by Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw in her garage in 1978, has outpaced the benchmark index's nearly 14% rise this year. Most of Biocon's rise has come in the past two months when speculation broke that Pfizer was in talks with Biocon.


"The stock seems to have run up faster than the positive news flow," said Arun Kejriwal, director of research firm KRIS. "It is a good time to exit from the stock."

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Essar eyeing oil and gas blocks in Africa: Report

Essar Oil, India's second-largest private refiner, is eyeing oil and gas exploration blocks in Africa to secure crude oil supplies for its refineries in India and Kenya, the Economic Times reported on Thursday, citing the company's managing director.


"The company is evaluating all prospects and will soon finalise few of them," Naresh Nayyar told the newspaper.


He did not give details of the properties Essar may acquire, but the paper cited unnamed people familiar with the development as saying Essar had identified at least six blocks in countries such as Nigeria, Libya and Madagascar where it may buy stakes or entire assets.


Essar Oil already has interests in some oil and gas blocks in Africa, India and Vietnam, the paper said.

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SEBI unlikely to go for 100% open offer: Report

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is unlikely to accept a proposal to lift the size of mandatory open offer arising from mergers and acquisitions to 100 % from 20%,  the Economic Times reported on Thursday.


A panel set up by the SEBI had proposed changes to takeover rules, including raising the open offer size to make it easier for minority shareholders to participate in open offers.



The SEBI board is scheduled to meet on Monday, the newspaper said, and cited an unnamed SEBI official as saying that the regulator would have to take a "hard look" at the proposal considering the resistance from industry bodies, merchant bankers and corporate lawyers.

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Credit growth for PSU banks a concern: Karvy

Though public sector banks are likely to post healthy September quarter results, experts feel that credit growth still remains a concern.


PSU banks will see strong growth. ?However, credit growth for PSU banks remains a concern,? he added.


According to him, Canara Bank?s September quarter saw strong net interest income (NII) due to net interest margin (NIM) expansion. Hazari sees other PSU banks like State Bank of India and Union Bank to post strong NII growth in September quarter.


Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying video.


Q: Canara Bank has reacted very well to its results yesterday. What did you make of it?


A: The net interest margin (NIM) of this bank has increased significantly and that has led to a very strong net interest income (NII) growth. This is a trend that you will see with many PSU banks which will report in the second quarter (Q2). That is because the base rate was introduced in July. Banks such as Canara Bank, which in our opinion was doing a lot of sub-base rate lending, all such lending would have got re-priced higher and that is why you are seeing this impact in their Q2 results.


Going forward, if you see a lot of banks have increased their base rate even in October. Third quarter (Q3) numbers should be positively impacted by this trend. But what is interesting to note is that those banks which had done a lot of sub-base rate lending, like Canara Bank, SBI and Union Bank, you should see a tremendous boost in NII in Q2.


Q: So you think SBI and Union Bank are next in line for some NIM surprises?


A: Yes, I would imagine so.


Q: What about the two which are reporting today, Corporation Bank and Allahabad Bank? What kind of numbers are you expecting from them?


A; We don?t cover both these banks. In our banking universe which consists of a lot of PSU banks in general, we are expecting 20% growth in net profits. I would expect the banking industry to come up with strong numbers in Q2.


Q: Provisions have gone up for Canara Bank but other income has come down? What are your observations on these two metrics?


A: By and large that was expected. A sharper fall in other income we were expecting treasury profits to be somewhat higher. That is because they had booked a lot of treasury profits in Q2 of last year. Despite that, their NII was significantly higher than our estimates.


Even though their net profits were below our estimates, overall their core income was stronger and therefore we have upgraded the stock further as one of the few banking stocks which we are recommending investors to buy.


Q: HDFC Bank?s NIMs are down marginally this quarter to 4.2%. Any reason to be concerned here?


A; Yes, because if you see HDFC Bank had the benefit of equity funds in the Q2 which have no interest cost as compared to Q2 of last year. Despite that, if their NIMs have remained constant at 4.2%, that would indicate that on their portfolio they had quite a lot of pressure on their NIMs.


Q: What about Axis Bank? While the numbers are not bad, a lot of people seem to be a little wary of valuations. Where do you stand on that?


A: If you see some of these large new private banks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, you will find the EPS growth is probably more indicative of performance than net profit because of the equity issues that they have had. In both cases you will find the EPS growth has been about 23%. These banks are really valued at 4.5-3.5 times book value. For a 23% earnings growth, I am sure PSU banks at the valuations they are commanding are attractive.


Q: What would this quarter be for ICICI Bank?


A: We do cover ICICI Bank. We expect somewhat moderate growth in earnings there. We are not expecting anything great but in the general banking industry, I don?t think any one should really disappoint very sharply on the net earnings.


Q: You flagged off a potential surprise in Canara Bank. Which are the other public sector banks you think can surprise on the way up with their earnings, aside of Union Bank that you spoke about?


A: I think Syndicate Bank, although it did not do much of sub-base rate lending. But there has been a quiet transformation taking place. NII going forward, should see an expansion and a very healthy growth.


I would also like to flag off an interesting development in Canara Bank. If you see the break up of their credit growth you will find that baring housing and retail loans, the rest of the sectors including infrastructure has shown a decelerating trend. This is a cause of worry because this would indicate only housing is growing today.


Q: That is an interesting point because generally there have been lots of notes of concerns from the public sector bankers for credit growth of this year. Most of them privately tell you that it has not picked up to the extent they thought it might. Is that an area of concern for you?


A: Yes, because Canara bank is a very large PSU bank and since they have released numbers we can analyze it. Baring housing and retail, and a larger chunk of retail is housing, in the rest of the segments, the credit growth has decelerated QoQ and infrastructure in Canara Bank?s case has been totally flat.


Infrastructure was a growth area for the banking industry. One has to view all these numbers with more caution about credit growth going forward.


Q: What do you think is stifling credit growth?


A; If you see the IIP numbers and you do a two-three month moving average, you will find that there is a very clear weakening trend since January-February. It is not just the surprise you found in September although some people are saying September is an aberration.


The trend is clearly weakening. We were expecting credit growth to take place on the back of growth in industry. But the IIP numbers since January are showing some cause of worry.

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Sunday, October 17, 2010

Ford to sell down stake in Mazda: source

Ford Motor Co plans to sell down its 11% stake in Mazda Motor Corp to a few percent as it distances itself from the Japanese automaker, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Saturday.


Trading house Sumitomo Corp and other Japanese business partners of Mazda are in talks to buy the shares set to be sold by Ford, and final decision on the sale is likely to be made by the end of the year, the source said.



The source spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal has not been made public. The Nikkei newspaper first reported on the likely stake sale by Ford earlier on Saturday.

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Excl: Harvard\'s Tarun Khanna on how to win in emerging mkts

He is a management thinker. Tarun Khanna is Jorge Paulo Lemana Professor at Harvard Business School, where he has studied, and has worked with multinational companies and investors in emerging markets worldwide. He has served as the head of several courses on strategy, corporate governance, and international business targeted to MBA students and senior executives at Harvard. He serves on the board of India's largest microfinance company, SKS Microfinance.


Khanna recently wrote a book, 'Billions of Entrepreneurs: How China and India Are Reshaping Their Futures and Yours'. But we are here to talk about his latest book which he has written in collaboration with Krishna Palepu, 'Winning in Emerging Markets'.



Senthil Chengalvarayan, Khanna redefines emerging markets and speaks about the challenges posed by institutional voids and how to manage them.


Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.


Q: When you talk about emerging markets (EMs), who is this book written for? Is it people, for anybody wanting to enter in any EM or are there some EMs more equal than others that you are looking at in this book?


A: All of the above and some more. It is meant to speak to anybody who has an interest in understanding what is going on in the EMs around the world and to provide a conceptual map, so they can begin to understand their way around the opportunities and pitfalls in these EMs.


Q: It?s a very large universe - when I read through the book, I find tables that seem to lump and this is no disrespect to some of the countries, a Korea, a Brazil, a China and India in the same basket as say a Nigeria or a Pakistan. So it's a very broad basket?


A: And I would make it even broader. I would put in United States in that also. The reason is that ultimately we are defining an EM simply and I hope powerfully as a situation where buyers and sellers have trouble coming together. And those situations as you saw with the recent subprime meltdown and the mortgage fiasco in the US could happen in developed economies also.


By and large they tend to happen more in the developing economies, the poorer countries which happen to be the faster growing countries today. But there is nothing conceptually axiomatic about that, it doesn?t have to happen in poor countries.


We hope that the part of the framework is in pointing out commonalities across different situations that people may not think are common as well as in identifying idiosyncrasies that are unique to different markets, so that people who start with the framework will have a very concrete Monday morning action plan to say, these are some of the things that I must address if I want to be active and successful in this place.


Q: So when you lumped in the US with this, so you are looking at an EM is somewhere where as you have mentioned later where an institution fails. But what is more important, is it the size of the market, is it growth opportunity?


A: None of the first set. In fact the starting point for this book was when my colleague Krishna and I realized that a lot of the existing definition of EMs were almost tautological. In other words people said that EM is simply one that is poor or fast growing or corrupt or you pick your adjective you wish to use.


Those are fine as descriptions of EMs but they don?t really tell you what the defining characteristic is. They don?t tell you what to do, what the action implication is of a particular situation being emerging or of emerging market A being emerging in a different way from emerging market B.


So the defining characteristic for us is simply the failure of buyers and sellers to either find each other, to have the information of where the others are, or the failure of buyers and sellers to consummate a transaction with each other because they are worried about the sanctity of the contracts, they worry that the other party isn't trustworthy, things of that nature. That is the defining characteristic


Q: You have mentioned that all EMs feature institutional voids and you go on to define three institutional voids that you think are important, that is the absent or unreliable sources of market information, an uncertain regulatory environment and an inefficient judicial system. Is any of this more important than the other?


A: Again it depends according to different countries. For instance the information about financial transactions, information about the credit worthiness, about borrowers and about potential issuers of equity breaks down.


In Korea, even though we think of Korea as being a relatively developed country and a member of the OECD now, whereas the same information is very prevalent in a place like Chile or in urban India. So that particular institutional void is more severe in Korea than in other parts. If you take something different it would be more severe in other places.


So that?s I hope the part of the framework is to say that start with identifying what are the strengths and weaknesses that are idiosyncratic to a particular country and build your plan according to those situations.


Q: Which of these three are the easiest to handle or to deal with?


A: I think it's very hard to say that A is harder than B. The severity of these voids varies from place to place. What's more, it varies according to the nature of the opportunity that?s in place relative to the mechanisms that have emerged to deal with the opportunity. That gap is an issue.


That?s why any time you see a quantum leap in the availability or the opportunity to do something, think about the internet that came around in force in the late 90s or in the early part of the last decade. It was a situation where there were suddenly lots of opportunity for people to get together in a way they hadn?t before and make a business.


But we hadn't figured out how to exactly bring them together, how to make sure that there weren?t scams and frauds going on. So for a period of time while those rules and systems and informal norms were emerging, they were institutional voids. They were voids in how buyers and sellers came together.


Then it took people like all these established names now Amazon, eBay and so on to establishe those norms, as well as regulatory authorities to emerge and say these are the regulations that are needed in place. Now those voids are much less present. That cycle repeats itself anytime there is a big quantum leap itself.


Q: Coming to India, which is the biggest void in India?


A: I have been thinking a lot about this. If I had to pick I will pick two though I would have trouble ranking them. One is the absence of risk capital which is endemically deficient in many developing countries.


Q: Despite a very well regulated capital market?


A: We are not even close. So the capital market is well regulated in spaces. In risk capital, angel finance is starting to become prevalent but still has a long way to go.


Q: And what causing that absence? Is it regulatory, is it legal?


A: It?s missing in most places around the word. So Silicon Valley, Tel Aviv, perhaps Bangalore, perhaps part of Shenzhen area. These are the exceptions and there are a couple of other exceptions.


Q: Are you distinguishing between Indian investor and private equity or both?


A: I think private equity is much more prevalent than angel investing or risk capital. Risk capital is genuinely - some guy comes up to me and says I have a great idea, give me some money and let me bank on it. So nobody is willing to put that cap to that risk because there is no mechanism in place to adjudicate whether this is a good person to allocate money to, whether he or she has been through the ring, to have his idea validated etc.


Q: Could it also be because the angel investor perhaps finds equal returns in a slightly less risky business like private equity? You can get in India at a slightly more mature level and still make your money?


A: That?s potentially part of it. I don?t think we have any good data to answer that question precisely. My guess is though it?s basically people would be willing to put ? there is a lot of capital available in India as you know, it is sitting in large stashes with a set of individuals or set of types of individuals.


Fortunately we have moved away from a situation where it was all under the mattress. So at least it is getting deployed in productive capital formation. But we still haven?t gotten to the point where it is backing untapped human capital which is the one resource that we have in spades, which brings me to this second big institutional void which is how do we get the 400 million people that are locked outside our economic mainstream and have them bridge the gap to come into the mainstream economy. That?s a big set of institutional voids.


Q: Being averse to risk capital is also because the lack of information?


A: Huge part of it.


Q: So are you glad or at least heartened by the fact that the company that you are associated with - SKS Microfinance - has finally gone in and launched an IPO in the sense maybe bringing that thing back into the mainstream?


A: That?s one form of economic inclusion that Vikram Akula and his team of people - no credit to me - has brought into the economic mainstream by enabling productive livelihoods and I think they have done spectacular social service on that front.


There are some newer efforts. There is a company that we are just creating right now called Aspiring Minds which is explicitly in the business of telling companies why should you hire only from ten places, why not 20,000, and it is basically lowering information barriers to getting people into this.

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OECD does not see 2008 food crisis repeatga

OECD does not expect a repeat of 2007-2008 food crisis because market fundamentals are different now, a senior OECD official told Reuters on Friday.


'Fundamentals are not there that would make us fear a repeat of the kind of price spikes that we had in 2007 and 2008,' Carmel Cahill, OECD trade and agricultural directorate senior counselor, said on the sidelines of a food forum.


She said grain markets were overreacting to the crop situation in Russia and the United States and there is no global shortage of wheat and corn at the present


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Bharti adds 2.04 mn mobile users in Sept

Bharti Airtel, India's top mobile operator, signed up 2.04 million mobile subscribers in September, taking its total in the country to 143.3 million, data from an industry body showed on Friday.


Third-largest mobile carrier Vodafone Essar, controlled by Vodafone, added 1.78 million mobile subscribers in September to have a total of 115.6 million, data from the Cellular Operators Association of India showed.


In September, sixth-ranked Idea Cellular added 1.48 million to reach 74.2 million, while Unitech Wireless -- majority owned by Norway's Telenor -- added 2.17 million subscribers, taking its total to 11.3 million.

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Coal India gets assurance to fully exploit mines

Coal India, whose USD 3.5 billion IPO opens on Monday, has received assurance from Indian prime minister's office that it could fully exploit its coal reserves, which were earlier constrained by the environment ministry, the Financial Express reported on Saturday.


The environment minister had issued a directive that designated about 40 % of the company reserves as 'no go areas' for mining, the paper said.



The environment minister proposed the prohibition to stop large-scale felling of forests. This could have impacted Coal India's production substantially, it said.


'The prime minister's office had intervened,' a senior company official, who declined to be identified, told Reuters over the telephone on Saturday.


'We are confident our projects will get the clearances.'


Around 115 of Coal India's projects were awaiting forest clearance from the environment ministry, Chairman Partha Bhattacharyya had told reporters in Mumbai earlier this week.


Coal India, based in the eastern city of Kolkata, produced 431 million tonnes in 2009/10, accounting for nearly 80 % of Indian coal output.


The miner, founded in 1973 when the government nationalised many coal mines, made a net profit of Rs 9830 crores (USD 2.2 billion) in 2010 fiscal year and expects that to grow 25 % in the year to March.


(USD 1 = 44.1 rupees)

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How tough will CFTC get on speculators?

Companies that trade energy, metals and agricultural futures and swaps are closely watching how severe of a stance the US futures regulator takes against speculators in new position limits for commodities.


Position limits determine the maximum number of contracts an investor can hold in a specific instrument.



Many traditional hedgers that use markets to manage their physical risk want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to write rules that would tamp down the flow of 'hot money' from investment funds they believe have overwhelmed their markets since 2008, when prices spiked to record levels.


But other players in the market including funds and banks say there's no evidence of excessive market-harming speculation, and argue draconian rules would push trade offshore, crimping liquidity that ultimately helps hedgers.


Here are some questions about what happens next:



How is the cftc developing its rules?


The work is led by a team of about a dozen CFTC staffers, some of whom helped develop proposed limits for energy futures markets in January. That plan was withdrawn after the CFTC got additional authority over the USD 615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market in the Wall Street reform law but it is expected to form the basis for the new, broader scheme.


The team is also considering input from a wide variety of hedgers, banks and funds that have requested meetings, as well as comments submitted to the CFTC's web site.


Five commissioners, including Chairman Gary Gensler, will have the final word on whether the rules go ahead. They have also been meeting with industry.

When will the cftc unveil the limits?


The proposed regulation for energy and metals is expected by early November. That would allow time for a 30-day comment period, and any revisions before the mid-January deadline for the final ruled a deadline specified in the Dodd-Frank law.


The CFTC's initial proposal could be tweaked but will have a lot of momentum to move forward because of the agency's extremely heavy regulatory workload.


For agricultural commodities, limits must be finalized in April. The first draft is expected by the end of this year.

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